AAII Sentiment Survey
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Definition
Weekly survey of American Association of Individual Investors members reporting the percentage bullish, bearish, and neutral on stocks over the next six months, most often watched as the bull-bear spread.
How to read it
AAII measures retail opinion, not actual positioning. It is a classic contrarian tool: extreme bullishness has often preceded weak forward returns, and extreme bearishness stronger ones. The most-used derivation is the bull-bear spread (bulls minus bears); an 8-week moving average smooths its noise. Because it is opinion rather than money at risk, it is best used to confirm positioning gauges (NAAIM, put/call) rather than as a standalone signal.
How practitioners use it
Used as context among multiple indicators — never as a standalone signal to act.
Less common professional uses
Opinion-vs-positioning divergence is the higher-value read: retail can say bearish (AAII) while active managers stay fully invested (NAAIM); the money-at-risk series usually wins. AAII responses are voluntary and the panel skews toward engaged retail; response counts fluctuate, so a single week's extreme can be a low-sample artifact. Sentiment is regime-dependent: in strong bull trends persistent high bullishness can stay 'wrong' for months, so contrarian fades need price confirmation. Use z-scores of the spread against a rolling 1-year window to standardize extremes across different volatility regimes. The survey period runs Thursday-to-Wednesday with Thursday release, a short lag that matters around fast reversals.
Sources & provenance
AAII Sentiment Survey (weekly, Thursday release)
This page is educational content published by Pachira Aquatica Global LLC. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation.